Eitan Shamir – Not an End State but a Long Game: Israel’s Strategic Goals in the Iron Swords War
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 2, 314, October 14, 2024
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Many commentators claim that Israel lacks a clear plan for “the day after” the end of the Iron Swords War. They argue that because of this supposed lack, Israel will not be able to hold onto its military achievements during the war, which will remain merely tactical. But Israel is not playing a short-term game. Beyond its declared war goals, Israel is aiming to create a new security reality in the region by weakening Iran and its proxies. This broader goal stems from the understanding that to Israel, this war is existential, and the removal of significant threats from Israel’s borders is non-negotiable. Israel understands that it cannot impose plans or political proposals on its opponents, be they Palestinian or Lebanese – but by demonstrating its clear military superiority over them, Israel will improve its position in future negotiations. Finally, there is potential for new regional arrangements, including normalization with more Arab countries, if Israel succeeds in significantly weakening the Iranian threat. If Israel can show potential allies major military achievements against a common enemy, it can suggest a political plan that will improve its position in the region – but not before then. For Israel there is no end game, only a long game.