Kenneth W. Stein, “The Arab-Israeli Peace Process,” Middle East Contemporary Survey, Vol. XX, 1996, Bruce Maddy-Weitzman (ed.), Westview Press, pp. 34-65.
Of all the events in 1996, the 29 May Israeli general elections had the most far-reaching impact on the Arab-Israeli peace process. Up until that point, peace process dynamics were related to efforts to influence the election’s outcome; the rest of the year was decisively shaped by the results — the election of opposition Likud Party head Binyamin Netanyahu to the post of prime minister and the formation of a right-of-center government. Before the election, both inside and outside the region, uncertainty and anxiety characterized viewpoints toward the peace process; after it, pessimism, distress, and distrust were the prevailing attitudes. Though the negotiating process stumbled repeatedly, the Palestinian-Israeli Oslo Accords remained the basis for their continuing negotiations.
The election’s results heavily shaped the nature and future of the Palestinian-Israeli negotiating track. Indeed, incremental devolution of power and territory to the Palestinian Authority (PA) was virtually stopped after the elections. The election campaign, and its results, also significantly affected the Syrian-Israeli track. Whatever the causes, Damascus and Jerusalem were making belligerent noises at one another in September. By year’s end, their relationship was noticeably worse, and negotiations, suspended since the early part of the year, remained nonexistent. Egyptian-Israeli relations deteriorated because the new Israeli government was viewed as hostile toward the Palestinians and opposed to further territorial withdrawals. While unfulfilled expectations for a “peace dividend” in Jordan fueled growing skepticism toward the new Israeli government, the Jordanian-Israeli track nonetheless maintained the brightest of dim lights. Regarding Lebanon, sporadic hostility and firefights between Israeli and Hezbollah forces in Southern Lebanon continued throughout the year, while exploding in April. Overall, by the end of December 1996, Israel’s “hard-won relations with moderate Arab states ranged from frozen to tense,” as diplomatic and commercial normalization slowed markedly. Israel’s economy, in the midst of reaping benefits from the peace process at the beginning of the year, became sluggish at year’s end as foreign investment and tourism declined.
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