June 13, 2026

By Ken Stein, CIE President

In May 2018, the Trump administration withdrew from what President Donald Trump called “one of the worst transactions the United States has ever entered into,” the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which aimed to contain but not eliminate Iranian access to nuclear weapons. In withdrawing from the Iran deal, Trump stipulated precisely what Tehran must do in any future agreement to satisfy the United States.

The White House noted eight broad and far-reaching elements that were necessary for a deal with Iran. Some were realistic, others only aspirational:

  • “Never have an ICBM, cease developing any nuclear-capable missiles, and stop proliferating ballistic missiles to others.”
  • “Cease its support for terrorists, extremists, and regional proxies, such as Hizballah, Hamas, the Taliban, and al-Qaeda.” (By 2026, the Taliban were back in power in Afghanistan, and al-Qaeda’s prominence had been denigrated.)
  • “End its publicly declared quest to destroy Israel.”
  • “Stop its threats to freedom of navigation, especially in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea.”
  • “Cease escalating the Yemen conflict and destabilizing the region by proliferating weapons to the Houthis.”
  • “End its cyber-attacks against the United States and our allies, including Israel.”
  • “Stop its grievous human rights abuses, shown most recently in the regime’s crackdown against widespread protests by Iranian citizens.” (An even more severe crackdown occurred in early 2026.)
  • Stop its unjust detention of foreigners, including United States citizens.

A comparison may be made between what the United States and Iran negotiate over the next several months and Trump’s 2018 outline. Most notably, the fourth item, freedom of navigation, has become much more important in 2026 with the focus on the future management of the Strait of Hormuz.

Also notably, in 2018, Trump did not specifically call for the end of Iran’s nuclear technology and enrichment programs or the disposal of its enriched uranium. Of course, Iran had not yet cheated in its segmented chase for a nuclear weapon.

Gauging the outcome of the 2026 negotiations based on the 2018 elements may be telling about which side succeeded or failed.