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Since the Hamas-led attacks against Israel on October 7, 2023, Hezbollah
secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah has made five public appearances
to address the group’s own confrontation with Israel along the Lebanese
border. Taken together, these speeches acknowledge a dramatic shift in the
rules of engagement and deterrence that had governed the two adversaries
since the summer war of 2006.1 Moreover, they make clear that Hezbollah
does not currently want war with Israel and that the group wishes to return to
the prewar deterrence status quo, which would allow it to bolster its military
infrastructure and fighting corps—and, in turn, keep serving its sponsor Iran.
For U.S. policy, preventing a full-scale Hezbollah-Israel war is a priority and
requires close consideration of the interests animating the Lebanon-based
Shia militant group.