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Jimmy Carter’s Decade of Embracing Hamas, 2003-2015

Jimmy Carter’s Decade of Embracing Hamas, 2003-2015CIE+ members only

Former US President Jimmy Carter embraced Hamas as a legitimate voice of the Palestinian people. His motivations possibly stretched from intentional to misguided to malevolent. Hamas leaders who were engaged in inter-Palestinian struggles remained pleased with the recognition he gave them. American officials and Israelis were keenly perturbed by the courtship he gave them.

The American Intelligence Threat Assessment on Iran’s Nuclear Program

The American Intelligence Threat Assessment on Iran’s Nuclear ProgramCIE+ members only

On Jan. 29, 2019, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence: “We do not believe Iran is currently undertaking the key activities we judge necessary to produce a nuclear device.” However, experience helps us realize that the American intelligence community has a very problematic track record in revealing, on time, nuclear weaponization efforts of many countries (e.g., North Korea, India, Pakistan, Syria, and Iraq) including Iran itself, so one has to be very humble about this kind of assessment.

Issues and Analyses|March 11, 2019
The Rising Crisis Between the United States and Iran

The Rising Crisis Between the United States and IranCIE+ members only

After a year in which Iran opted for “strategic patience,” in the hope that European nations would compensate for the United States sanctions, it now seeks to present a price tag for the US measures against it, and has thus embarked on a response comprising action in three realms: nuclear, military, and oil exports from the Gulf. In the current circumstances, Iran and the United States are demanding conditions that would make a resumption of negotiations difficult, although both sides apparently understand that dialogue may ultimately be the less dangerous option for them.

Issues and Analyses|May 14, 2019
On Developing a Coherent US Regional Strategy Towards Iran, and Iran’s Likely Response

On Developing a Coherent US Regional Strategy Towards Iran, and Iran’s Likely ResponseCIE+ members only

The US can and should develop a coherent region-wide strategy, involving US allies including Israel, to impede Iran’s ability to continue developing in ways detrimental to the region’s security. However, Iran is proficient in the practice of using proxies and paramilitary methods, as well as in the combination of paramilitary and political struggle. Its response to a US-led strategy to contain and roll back their influence is likely to focus on these areas.

Issues and Analyses|September 21, 2018