Arab-Israeli Negotiations

Hezbollah responded with restraint to Israel’s three-pronged attacks over the past two weeks in Syria, Iraq, and, above all, a neighborhood in Dahiya, the vast Shiite area in Beirut where Hezbollah is headquartered. The organization’s effort to avoid escalation reflects its demographic problem in Lebanon.

The considerations that have so far guided Hezbollah’s calculated retaliation on September 1, 2019 following Israel’s strikes, and the August 25 drone strike in Beirut in particular, reflect its character as an organization with multiple identities – all of which influence its decision making. Hezbollah simultaneously constitutes a pivotal link in the regional “resistance axis” led by Iran; a Lebanese “resistance” movement and “defender of Lebanon”; and an organization within Lebanon that preserves its independent identity and autonomous decision making. Even as Hezbollah is involved in the overarching “resistance axis” against Israel, its commitment to the Lebanese state serves as a restraint. In its brief round of fighting with Israel, Hezbollah, which seeks to avoid broadening the confrontation to a war ruinous for both Lebanon and itself, behaved like a careful state-like actor.

The economic workshop in Bahrain is the first part of the “deal of the century”; the political portion will apparently be presented only after the Israeli elections in September. The workshop in Bahrain leans heavily on Donald Trump’s political doctrine, whereby the economic power of the United States is the key to resolve economic, political, and social issues. However, a review of peace treaties that Israel has signed shows that the economy has consistently played only a secondary role, behind significant political solutions. The economic incentives were not the main channel of Israel’s peace treaties, but rather, a complement to the political channel. Therefore, despite the American desire to present a chiefly economic agenda for the Middle East, the success of the plans presented at the conference are tightly tied to the forthcoming political portion of the “deal of the century.”

Demographic pressures lie behind much of what is happening in Gaza. In 1948, 250,000 Palestinian refugees fled to Gaza, where the existing population was 80,000. Today, the population of Gaza is about 1.9 million of whom 1.3 million (68%) are refugees. Palestinians are the only people to retain refugee status generation after generation as a result of United Nations support.

On October 21, 2018, Jordan’s King Abdullah II informed Israel that he would not renew two annexes of the 1994 peace treaty between Israel and Jordan that leased the territory of Naharayim and Zofar to Israel. Many factors contributed to this decision, including Jordan’s anger over its exclusion from issues related to Jerusalem, the Temple Mount, and the recent diplomatic talks with the Palestinians. The single most significant factor that led to this decision, however, was Abdullah’s need to shore up his legitimacy in the aftermath of the protests and social unrest that erupted in Jordan over the summer.

The Oslo process – started between Israel and the Palestinians 25 years ago – clearly failed to bring a resolution to the conflict and did not result in peaceful coexistence between Israelis and Palestinians. The nearly 1,600 Israeli casualties and many more thousands of wounded during this period by Palestinian terrorist and rocket attacks testify to this failure. Yitzhak Rabin’s land-for-security formula did not work.

The month of May was fraught with turbulent events that began with the disclosure of Iranian nuclear documents by Israel, and continued with an Israeli air strike against Iranian missile bases in Syria, the transfer of the US embassy to Jerusalem, and the riots at the border fence with Gaza. The discourse involving users from the Arab world on social media illustrates their contradictory attitudes towards Israel, which are influenced by the respective interests guiding various groups.

The current Palestinian political economy, influenced far too greatly by the BDS and anti-normalization campaigns, amounts to a corrupt, unsustainable, terror-supporting regime that is disinterested in the economic well-being of its own people and the development of a new state.

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Abba Eban, writing in The Israel Yearbook in 1977, recounted what a British official, Sir Reginald Coupland said about how to end or wind down political conflict in Palestine.

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A thoughtful perspective of Arab-Israeli relations, that places the Palestinian-Israeli conflict within a regional framework, still burdened by multiple political uncertainties. (August 2016)